Category: Contract Review

Contract Review: Joey Votto

Over the last three years, Joey Votto has put up incredible, MVP-like numbers. With a career .313/405/550 slash line and an MVP to his name, Votto is clearly one of the games elite players and the driving force behind the Reds offense. That being said, many around the industry felt that the Reds would struggle to sign Votto long term and may even be forced to trade him. Instead the Reds were able to secure Votto on a shocking 10-year, $225 million dollar deal.

Photo from Deadspin

For Votto, this deal is a clear win. If you include the two year deal Votto is currently playing under, he is guaranteed $251.5 million dollars over the next 12 years. While Votto is clearly a great player, this deal leaves Votto earning over $20 million into his age 40 seas0n, a prospect that should scare Reds fans. While Votto could have received a substantial deal had he waited till free-agency, most reckon his contract would have been in the area of the 8 year, $180 million dollar deal Mark Texeria received from the Yankees. For Votto, this extension should earn him substantially more than waiting till free agency, while also giving him finacial security against injury or poor performance.

On the other hand, the Reds may regret this extension, and sooner rather than later. While Votto should continue to produce very well over the next 5 years or so, the length of this deal will lead to problems for the Reds. As statistics show, most sluggers begin to decline around their age 34 season, at which time the Reds will still owe Votto nearly $125 million dollars. This long term commitment will also make it much more difficult for the Reds to extend star Brandon Phillips, as well as farther down the road when Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Matt Latos are due for substantial extensions of their own.

While Votto’s extension was a valiant effort by the Reds to stay relevant in a difficult baseball market, it may have been a poor long term baseball decision that could adversely effect the club in the future. So there is my opinion, whats yours? Will Votto earn his money?

3 Catchers Molina’s Extension Impacts

Earlier this week, Yadier Molina signed a suprising 5 year, $75 million dollar deal with the cardinals. While Molina may be off the board, there are still a three top of the line catchers available next offseason: Mike Napoli, Russel Martin, and Miguel Montero. Here’s how it looks for them:

Napoli: Mike Napoli came over to Texas last year and went on to have a career year with a .320/.414/.631 line. While Napoli clearly offers a better offense bat than Molina does, he is notorious for his poor defense, which will hurt him in free agency. Because Molina is a stronger defender than Napoli, the $75 million that Molina received may be a ceiling for Napoli’s contract. Another good comparable may be Victor Martinez’s 4 year, $50 million dollar contract.

Photo form OU students, as Martinez was also an offense focused catcher at the time of his free agency. If Napoli has another strong year, especially defensively, he should receive 60-70 million dollars over 4 or 5 years.

Montero: Much like Napoli, Miguel Montero supplied the Diamondbacks with his best offensive season in 2011, hitting .282 with 18 home runs. Unlike Napoli though, Montero does not possess the long history of offensive production and, despite his recent performance, will fall well short of both Molina’s and Napoli’s deal. Montero is also working from a much lower salary, as he will earn $5.9 million this season compared to Napoli’s $9.4 million. Montero should receive an annual salary in the 8-10 million range, and, given his relative youth at just 28, could receive up to $40 million over 4 years. In my opinion, it is more likely that Montero resigns with the Diamonbacks after the year for around 3 years and $30 million.

Martin: Unlike the two before mentioned catchers, Russel Martin is more known for his defensive prowess than his skills with the bat. For this reason, Molina’s extension may have the most profound effect on Martin, as he proves that defensive catchers can obtain big money contracts. While no one will argue that Martin is equal of Molina, his contract should give him a substantial bargaining boost. A solid goal for Martin may be a contract in the 4 year, $40 million dollar range as his substantial injury history will hinder his ability to receive a longer term deal.

Well there is my opinion on next years top-of-the-line catchers market. Whats Yours? Which catcher would you like your favorite team to sign?

Contract Review: Prince Fielder

Photo from Rumors and Rants

Coming into the this off-season, Prince Fielder was one of the most highly sought after players on the free agency market. Yet, come mid January, he was still available, and the market was looking thin. But somehow, super agent Scott Boras was able to land Fielder a massive nine-year $214 million dollar contract with the Tigers. While the deal seems like a clear win for Fielder, how does it break down for the tigers?

Everyone will agree that Fielder makes the team better in the short term. With the dominant 3-4 of Fielder and Cabrera to go along with a Justin Verlander lead rotation, the Tigers are the clear favorite to win the AL central and a legitimate world series threat.

While these short term benefits are clear, the length of the contract should be a concern for Tigers fans. While Fielder may be only 28, his body type does not bode well for the longevity of his career. At just 5’11”, and weighing 275 pounds, Fielder is unlikely to perform at high level past his fifth season because his body will breakdown, yet their will still be almost a hundred million dollars left on his contract.

Photo from Every Joe

More important though, are the implications that this contract has on the team ability to resign their young stars in the future, mainly Justin Verlander.  Verlander will become a free agent after the 2014 season and, if he continues to pitch at a high level, could demand a contract greater than the $161 million dollar contract C.C. Sabathia signed after the 2008 season. Will the tigers have this kind of money available? Currently, the Tigers have only two commitments on the book for that year, but they are big ones in the form of $22 million for Miguel Cabrera and $24 million for Fielder. If we approximate $23 million dollar annual salary for Verlander, thats $69 million dollars worth of commitments on three players. Assuming their current payroll of $105 million, that would leave only $36 million for the rest of the roster, is this possible, yes, ideal though, definitely not.

While the tigers created a possible window for a championship with the Fielder signing, they also burdened themselves with a potentially bad contract in the future as well as risked losing their homegrown star, a painful experience, as cardinals fans will testify.  What do you think? How will the Fielder contract turn out for the Tigers?